Here’s what you can expect from the most impactful areas of technology in 2023 – covering Web3, AI and The Metaverse.
Web3
More brands will jump onto Web3 – after successes from the likes of Starbucks’ Odyssey and Nike Swoosh, we will see more brands experiment with NFTs.
If you’re new to Web3 or just want to catch up on this fast moving tech, check out our Web3 Explainer – it’s designed for busy professionals.
Those brands venturing into Web3 will find success because they focus on ‘utility’ (a useful purpose), which will become the main driver for Web3 uptake.
There will be less toe-dipping and more diving-into utility driven formats like token gated access, community access, loyalty rewards and digital coupons.
Most of us will be happy to see the era of the JPG NFT draw to a close.
One of the underexploited features of NFTs is the ability to attach royalty and commission conditions through smart contracts. The potential this brings is huge and we will see new entries to the Web3 space taking advantage of this.
We’ll start to see the beginning of the de-nurdification process, which will be for the good of all involved in Web3.
Zero-knowledge proof (ZK) uses a recently rediscovered method of proving that the result of a calculation carried out externally to a system can be trusted. That means that processing can happen off of blockchains without spoiling trustlessness. This will open up more possibilities for blockchain based applications.
Web3 has been bad at making itself accessible to a mainstream audience. Uptake has been slower than the technology’s evangelists would have liked. As investors in products that use Web3 begin to demand a return, there will be an increased focus on better user experiences with wallets and easier onboarding for people new to Web3.
We’ll start to see the beginning of the de-nurdification process, which will be for the good of all involved in Web3.
And that leads me onto our final prediction for Web3 in 2023…
We will see fewer references to the term ‘Web3’ and more focus on the unique technologies and concepts that it encompasses. That’s where the good stuff is – blockchains, NFTs, decentralisation, identity and so on.
AI
Really, AI is no longer an emerging technology. Machine learning is practically a given for most data focused applications. However, the real innovation crux is now cognitive AI. It’s going to be exciting, fast paced and the results will be very visible.
The rate of development of AI will continue to outpace our ability to apply it.
Firstly, look out for GPT-4, the next generation of OpenAI’s generative language model.
GPT-4 should be released early in the year and we can expect a step-change performance improvement. The rate of development of this AI will continue to outpace our ability to apply it.
VCs will rush towards AI innovation. OpenAI has used its $1million investment from Microsoft and is currently raising billions more. Stability AI raised $100 million recently and is already looking for more. This interest will cascade down to new ventures and increase the funding chances of any startup using AI.
AI will impact search. If ChatGPT taught us one thing, it’s that conversational search is often better than hitting Google.
Suddenly, guessing your way around the structure of a search query and get back a long list of links seems so, well, 2022. If you could instead have a conversation with an AI and have it answer your question, that would be a much better experience.
But there will also be a real challenge posed by AI – the quality level of AI generated content is becoming so high that there will likely be a shift in the value of human generated content.
We won’t be able to declare that “the AI has taken over!” quite yet, but what seemed far off science fiction last year will become a proper point of concern to many people who have built businesses from content creation.
The surge in real world applications of AI will continue and one really promising area is that of digital twins – creating virtual replicas of real world environments in which new AI can be developed and tested. We will see the impact of this everywhere, from autonomous vehicles to optimising supply chains, to refining military strategy, right through to improving sports teams and tackling new forms of human surgery.
There are two areas of growth in technology that will be needed to support the heavy demands of innovation in AI.
The first will be the rise of AI hardware – chips that can provide AI power to any device. Alphabet, Apple, Arm, Intel and Nvidia are all big players in this game.
The second will be even more distributive processing network – developing new AI requires vast computing power and both established cloud computing companies and new, open alternatives will get a boost. Check out Golem Network for an interesting take on this.
The Metaverse
Mark Zuckerberg has staked his business on it. The King of Silicon Valley innovation, Tony Fadell, says it has no use case. So will the Metaverse become a proper reality in 2023?
Meta’s VR hardware, Quest 2, has a claimed 14 million units sold and continued to outsell Xbox over Christmas. And there are many more startups developing hardware such as MagicLeap and Apple.
It seems that’s not likely, at least not just yet and not in the way Meta would like us to engage with it. But Mark is playing a longer game and that might just work out.
Pitching VR as a productivity or purely social tool is a tough sell to the current tech generation, but might just work out further downstream.
For now Meta is investing heavily in VR games and interactive experiences and there will be a flurry of impressive products hitting the market early and mid this year.
There’s no doubt the build up to gaming, entertainment and education in VR (and all the other alternative realities) has proven there is potential there right now. These will be the areas to watch in 2023.
Meta’s VR hardware, Quest 2, has a claimed 14 million units sold and continued to outsell Xbox over Christmas. And there are many more startups developing hardware such as MagicLeap and Apple.
Apple’s approach to the Metaverse is more cautious. They’re due to launch an Apple VR headset this year and they have Apple Glasses on the horizon, but not for a couple more years. We’ll get more insight this year.
When we do get to try on Apple Glasses they are likely to be more an extension of the old Google Glasses concept (which suffered from ethical/privacy issues).
Tim Cooke says they are targeting a niche user and Apple’s vision for all alternative realities is most likely as as extension of their phone and watch interface. Given the app power of Apple’s devices that could be a sensible approach.
Innovation and Investment
Despite the grim economic outlook, technology sectors are generally optimistic. This report cites that “Gartner estimates that 2023 global IT spending will reach $4.6 trillion in 2023, a jump of 5.1% over 2022 spending”.
Investment in emerging technologies (such as AI, Web3 and VR/AR) gets a bigger boost with “Spending on new technologies is expected to hit $1.36 trillion in 2023, adding nearly 30%”.
Those organisations who are not afraid of change and have solid customer research and clear goals, plus a good innovation function, will succeed.
We’re continuing into a period of generally low investment, but this won’t be the worst it’s been (look to 2017 for that). However, money is now very expensive. Although no one can claim that’s good news for those seeking investment in 2023, history proves that innovators will thrive when under pressure. There will be fewer, smaller investments, and this will focus founders on longer term goals and earlier profitability. That will make for fewer headlines (don’t expect many unicorns this year) but it will bolster the foundations of investment.
Without the blanket of cheap money, ventures with legs will need to innovate quickly to establish within their market. Those who fail to innovate will move aside earlier.
With the end of ‘business as usual’ and less money to go around, innovation will, more than ever, drive the success of all organisations. A healthy innovation formula takes inputs from the needs of customers and the requirements of businesses. Those organisations who are not afraid of change and have solid customer research and clear goals, plus a good innovation function, will succeed.
fish in a bottle and Innovation
Fish in a bottle is an established innovation studio focused on emerging technology. We are trusted by visionaries to strategise, design and build the products and services that bring success to the world’s most innovative organisations.
